Mobility to the max

Using the diversity of the OUTNR.org movement we defined inspiring scenarios for the mobility of the future.

Which brands do you think will be the winners in mobility? 

Paul Heise “All major brands will leap frog over each other in new developments. We’ll see a lot of m&a in the automotive industry in the coming two decades, as well as JVs with related industries, as alternatives to internal combustion engines mature (H2, EV, formic acid, PV powered engines, etc). My guess: in 2040 there are no more than 8 brands (with sub-brands) dominating the market (plus dozens of niche players of course), all targeting alternative power trains only, because the ICE has been banned in most western countries.”

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37% feel we will achieve this ambition, 19% fear we will be close to today’s impact, the remaining 44% was neutral.

How much will we travel in 20 years?

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Alex Silva | The odds are positive. Everything that became digital start to evolve exponentially and right now mobility is getting digitized, therefore I’m positive about this time frame of 20 years.

If you were tasked to invest 1 billion Euro into one mobility related investment, where would you invest in (technology, company, concept,..)?
Mobility as a service (MaaS) companies. Finland-based MaaS would be top of my list. Others like Transloc in US would be in the portfolio also.
The big idea is to forget everything you think you know about how mobility is organised. Just pull together all the possible available data to get you (or your things) from A to B in the most efficient (defined by you) way possible. No more silos between public transport networks, individually owned vehicles, bikes and infrastructure. One day it might mean a combo of bike and train, another occasion may warrant a shared autonomous vehicle and a plane. No messing about with different tickets or passes, everything on time and seamless.
The future is already around the corner and the evolution of batteries and materials are enabling amazing new solutions for mobility. I would invest in small flying taxis for short to middle distances inside big cities like the startup Lilium.

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Which brands will be the winners in mobility?

Joost d’Hooghe – Mercedes, transforming their power brand of durability and luxury into e-mobility and autonomous driving. Their project F 015 (luxury in motion) offers an inspiring view of the future. The brand will develop into a VIP mobility “service”

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Paul Heise|All major brands will leap frog over each other in new developments. We’ll see a lot of m&a in the automotive industry in the coming two decades, as well as JVs with related industries, as alternatives to internal combustion engines mature (H2, EV, formic acid, PV powered engines, etc). My guess: in 2040 there are no more than 8 brands (with sub-brands) dominating the market (plus dozens of niche players of course), all targeting alternative power trains only, because the ICE has been banned in most western countries.

Rasmus Valanko I agree with Paul. Many brands are doing great things at the moment. However, they are all only just getting started. E.g. VW with Moia (new mobility models), Renault-Nissan Group with their eur8k EV for India, Honda with gas/diesel hybrid, Scania with electrified roads etc… This is a really exciting time to be following the industry. It is very hard to see who the winners will be, especially if you take into consideration the advent of shared autonomous vehicles (will the customer care what brand it is?).

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Joost d’Hooghe – Most of our movement 20 years from now will still be over road, be it in autonomous vehicles. The rate of investment by OEM’s like AUDI, FORD, TESLA,… but also Tier 1 suppliers like BOSCH, ZF, DELPHI,.. is moving mobility forward. On top of movement over road there will be some flying “drone” like people movers flying around.

What will the impact of Hyperloop be on the way we move around?

Main reason of existence / viable business model: Alternative to short distance flights & superfast trains (up to 500km), mainly airport to airport transportation (e.g. Amsterdam-Brussels or Brussels-Paris). It further facilitates conducting international business, as roads continue to get clogged 24/7 due to decreasing TCO (because of sharing services and mobility-as-a-service) resulting in ever more cars on the road. Autonomous driving will help a bit, but not enough. This is where Hyperloop jumps in.
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